Colorado State University now expects a total of 15 named storms and eight hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. Three of the eight hurricanes are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Three months ago, CSU had predicted that 11 named storms would become hurricanes, with two likely to reach major hurricane status. On June 1 the forecast changed again, with CSU predicting 14 named storms and six hurricanes.
The latest updated forecast is above the 30-year historical average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic Basin of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Warm water temperatures in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean along with the dwindling chance of El Niño’s development later this summer, are contributing factors to CSU’s updated forecast predicting more storms.
“A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic is generally associated with lower surface pressures, increased mid-level moisture and weaker trade winds, creating a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” said CSU.
The university, well respected in the field of atmospheric science, found six years since 1950 that most closely resemble what is expected in the atmosphere above and waters of the Atlantic basin during August-October 2017. Those years included 1953, 1969, 1979, 2004, 2006 and 2012. The average of those six seasons is very close to CSU forecast for 2017.
Tags: hurricane season
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