2018 Hurricane Season Expected To Be Above Average With 14 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes

The 2018 Hurricane Season will be slightly above average, according to the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, which has been relied on for decades with its predictions. In its first forecast of 2017, C.S.U. had predicted a slightly below average hurricane season with 11 named storms, but by July of 2017 C.S.U. updated its prediction with 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, three of which it said would have been major.

This year, C.S.U. in its first prediction said it’s expecting 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, three of which are expected to be major.

According to C.S.U., the current weak La Niña event — a cooling of the water in the equatorial Pacific that occurs at irregular intervals and is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns — appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months. ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, is an atmosphere phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that has widespread meteorological and ecological impacts on Earth’s surface.

“But at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall,” C.S.U. said. “The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

The probability for at least one of the three predicted major hurricanes making landfall in the Caribbean is 52 percent, C.S.U. said. The average for the last century has been 42 percent.

On the U.S. mainland the probability for at least one of the three predicted major storms making landfall is 63 percent. On the East Coast including the Florida peninsular, the percentage drops to 39 percent, although the average for the last century has been 31 percent. For the Gulf Coast including the Florida Panhandle, this year’s probability is 38 percent. The average of the last century has been 30 percent, according to C.S.U.

Other data provided by C.S.U.

• 70 Named Storm Days
• 30 Hurricane Days
• 7 Major Hurricane Days

C.S.U. said this first forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data. “The early April forecast is the earliest seasonal forecast issued by Colorado State University and has modest long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode. The skill of CSU’s forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches,” C.S.U. said.