According to a recently released outlook from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, the 2019 Hurricane Season may see less storms and be slightly less active, but that’s no indication the storms that do form will be any less destructive.
CSU is expecting 13 named storms out of which five will become hurricanes, while two are expected to develop into major hurricanes.
The 2019 forecast is near the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The CSU outlook comes on solid authority, as it is based on more than 30 years of statistical predictors, combined with seasons exhibiting similar features of sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.
“The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted, CSU said.
Occasionally, the predictions do change, and the CSU findings, released on Thursday, may not be the last before the 2019 Hurricane Season officially kicks off on June 1.
In 2017, the U.S. Virgin Islands was devastated by two back-to-back storms that changed lives forever. Hurricane Irma walloped St. Thomas, St. John and Water Island, and Hurricane Maria mostly ravaged St. Croix.
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