As T.S. Dorian Holds South, St. Croix Braces For Up To 6 Inches Of Rain; Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Puerto Rico

While some uncertainty remains as it relates to the ultimate path of Tropical Storm Dorian, if the storm continues to hold south of St. Croix through Wednesday as currently forecast, it is still projected to bring up to six inches of rain to some parts of the island, and 2-4 inches in most areas on Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 a.m. advisory.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, and Dorian is expected to impact the south portion of the island commonwealth late Wednesday into Thursday. During the next several hours, the storm is projected to affect some Lesser Antilles islands after impacting Barbados in the last 24 hours. According to The Nation, a newspaper in Barbados, while Dorian caused power outages and some wind damage, it had weaken before reaching the island.

Even so, “…tropical storm conditions are still occurring. Dorian has weakened slightly, with maximum sustained winds now near fifty miles per hour, and winds extend to 45 miles. Barbados experienced winds of 38 miles per hour. Similar conditions are likely to persist over the next few hours,” said Barbados Meteorological Services’ Acting Senior Meteorologist Sabu Best, according to The Nation.

Tropical storm watches remain in effect for:

• Grenada and its dependencies
• Dominica
• Saba & Eustatius
• Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
• Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for:

• St. Lucia
• St. Vincent and the Grenadines
• Puerto Rico
• Martinique

Outlook

According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 60.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Rainfall

Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday:

• Barbados…Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches.
• Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
• Grenadines to Grenada…1 to 3 inches.
• Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica…1 to 4 inches.
• Puerto Rico and Saint Croix…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
• Dominican Republic…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches.

Wind

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today.

Surf

Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.