Karen Downgraded To Tropical Depression, But Heavy Rainfall Still Expected

The National Hurricane Center in its 5:00 p.m. advisory downgraded Karen to a tropical depression, but N.H.C. is still cautioning residents to be prepared for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

In its key message on Karen at 5:00 p.m., N.H.C. said, “Regardless of Karen’s status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The potential for rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.”

According to N.H.C.’s 5:00 p.m. advisory, the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Rainfall

Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday:

• Northern Windward Islands: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches.
• Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches.
• Leeward Islands: 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

Wind

Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late tonight. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains.