Downtown Charlotte Amalie Could Be Under Water Before 2050 Because Of Global Warming; Experts Say

ST. THOMAS — Downtown Charlotte Amalie could be underwater by 2050, according to experts testifying during a Committee on Economic Development, Agriculture and Planning held on Friday at the Earl B. Ottley Legislative Hall. That’s because climate change — which the territory and small islands have contributed little to —  is causing sea levels to rise and is triggering rapid and extreme weather patterns that have already negatively impacted the Virgin Islands.

The committee, chaired by Senator Janette Millin Young, heard testimony from members of the Virgin Islands Climate Change Council, led by Federal Program Coordinator on Climate Change Shawn Michael Malone, who detailed the impact the Virgin Islands could face because of global warming.

Mr. Malone said a highly complex and integrated policy must be implemented in the Virgin Islands “if we’re going to be prepared for any types of issues that may impact the territory going forward.” He mentioned Tropical Storm Erica, which ravaged the island of Dominica with category 4 hurricane strength, and the drought that affected the territory in 2015 as signs that the Caribbean is already being negatively impacted by the changing patterns. Mr. Malone said the hot weather and other variances may be part of the reason why new diseases like the Zika virus and Chikungunya have surfaced.

The council on climate change received a grant of $828,000 (they applied for $1.9 million) to begin the process of preparing the territory for potential impacts. The first step, according to Mr. Malone, will be a two-year assessment that will be followed by a climate change action plan, which he says will reveal “the potential impacts of climate change on the territory’s economy, human health and agriculture, which covers pretty much everything.”

Economic impact on coastal and marine sectors up to the year 2050 shows conservative estimates ranging from 68 percent to 286 percent of 2008 Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.) under a relatively high carbon emission scenario, and an impact ranging from 30 percent to 139 percent of 2008 G.D.P. under a relatively low carbon emission scenario.

“This equates to cumulative losses by 2050 ranging from $671 million to $2.8 billion, and cost impacts to the other sectors affected are yet to be determined for the Virgin Islands, but regional studies show high cost as well,” Mr. Malone said.

The former senator explained that aside from storms, the territory’s now experiencing hotter day-to-day temperatures, which he says can affect human health. “We can’t speak about economic development if we have sick people,” he said. “We have to understand the connection to how human health impacts the economy and that’s why this is really an important issue.”

The territory lacks its own detailed scientific data on climate change, according to UVI professor Kostas Alexandridis, who added that regular monitoring must commence.

“Even the worst-case 5-10 year projections might be surpassed by reality because we’re entering an era that we’ve never experienced before,” Mr. Alexandridis said. The professor also presented simulation slides showing that by 2050 the sea level in the Virgin Islands could rise by 6-8 feet, which would significantly affect roads and infrastructure in the downtown Charlotte Amalie area, and the ecologically sensitive areas like the East End Reserve in Bovoni. Significant ecological zones in St. Croix including both the Christiansted and Frederiskted towns will be impacted as well, Mr. Alexandridis said.

He said the weather patterns are rapidly moving towards extreme events, including more intense droughts, shorter and more intense periods of rain to the extreme side of distributions, which raises the chances for tsunamis as high as 100 feet, Mr. Alexandridis said.

“There is no need for alarm, but we have to start as communities and as societies how we’re going to prepare ourselves and what kind of adaptation policy should we start considering to address the issue,” he said. “And unlike mainland states, we don’t have many mitigation options like evacuation or moving people outside the territory; so I think starting a dialogue that begins to examine different adaption policies and options is an important thing.” Mr. Alexandridis added that collecting data and making more detailed scientific assessments are also critical components.

Senator Clifford Graham, pondering the reality of the information relayed on Friday, said, “2050 is only 34 years from now. So what it tells me is by the time I reach the age of my mother — if I’m fortunate enough — the waterfront may not even exist.” Mr. Alexandridis agreed, and said it might happen even sooner.

“Every few years there are updated predictions about sea levels, and they get worse every year. So we don’t even know what’s going to happen in 20 years. It’s more likely than not, in my opinion, that the actual impacts may be even worse than what we anticipate today,” he said.

Department of Agriculture Commissioner Carlos Robles said climate change was already impacting plant cycles, causing trees to bear fruit sometimes twice a year and with less appealing fruits because of poor fertilization.

And when asked by Senator Tregenza Roach about potential funding to help with mitigation, Mr. Malone said leading nations like the U.S., Europe and Canada were contributing to what is called a Green Fund, of which St. Lucia has already received $50 million. But the territory, because it’s under the U.S. flag, does not have access to those funds.

Feature Image: Downtown Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas.