National Hurricane Center Tracking Three Systems In The Atlantic

Historically, September has been the most active month during the hurricane season. But multiple weather systems and one hurricane (Hurricane Gert) have developed midway through the month of August in 2017, with the National Hurricane Center (N.H.C.) keeping an eye on three new systems churning in the Atlantic.

N.H.C. says showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary, according to N.H.C. Formation chance through the next 48 hours is medium at 60 percent. The chance grows to 70 percent through the next 5 days.

A second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. N.H.C. says chance of formation through the next 48 hours is medium at 40 percent. It grows slightly to 50 percent in the next five days.

The third system being monitored is a tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. N.H.C. says it’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph, N.H.C. says. Formation chance through the next 48 hour is low at near 0 percent, but it increases to medium, 40 percent, in the next five days.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently increased its 2017 hurricane forecast, as the government agency continues to monitor activity in the Atlantic and the African coast.

NOAA now forecasts 14-19 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes this season.

“The season has the potential to be extremely active,” NOAA said in its August outlook, which was published a week ago. NOAA forecasters expect a 60 percent chance of an above-average hurricane season.

The updated forecast is above the Atlantic Basin’s 30-year historical average (1981-2010) of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.