Breaking

I was recently reading an article about the Alligator Snapping turtle and how it lays motionless in the water, appearing to be a harmless rock to the unsuspecting eye. In its mouth lays an appendage that resembles a worm. The turtle can even make this appendage move like a life-like worm. The purpose of the turtle’s deceptive actions is to lure would be worm predator’s into their mouths. Unknowingly to the would-be predators, they are actually the prey. So, unsuspecting prey enters the turtle’s mouth thinking they have just found lunch, and at that moment the jaws of the turtle closes and devours the turtle’s unsuspecting creature for lunch.

As weird as it may sound, this article made me think of the U.S. Virgin Islands Gubernatorial Election race. After the Honorable Delegate Donna Christensen won the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial primary, much of the talk was not about her victory, but about the percentage in which she acquired said victory. The narrative quickly turned from her being victorious, to one where a majority of the Democratic Party voted against her. This has given off the impression that the delegate is not only weak, but ready to be eliminated. So, other candidates in the field have gone on the offensive, attacking what they perceive as a weakness. The question that comes to mind now is, is the delegate really weakened and vulnerable, or is she like the Alligator Snapping Turtle, laying still dangling what appears to be lunch to some unsuspecting prey, and just waiting for the right moment to show her true strength and crush her prey? And are her supposed predators really just prey?

Ashley Scotland

Vulnerable or Triumphant

Let’s see what picture the numbers paint.

Delegate Christensen has received a total of 3,132 votes per the last count that has been made public by the U.S. Virgin Islands Board of Elections (B.O.E.), which accounted for about 35% of the total votes cast in the gubernatorial election. She received 1,541 votes on St. Croix, which accounted for about 32 percent of the St. Croix vote. She received 1,592 votes on St. Thomas, representing about 40 percent of the total votes cast for governor in that district. Her closest competitor, former Senator Adlah A. Donastorg Jr. received a total of 2,143 votes. He received 1,143 votes on St. Croix, representing about 23 percent of the vote in the district, and he received 1,000 votes in his home district of St. Thomas, accounting for around 25 percent of that district.

No other candidate in the race received 15 percent or more in the total vote count or in either district. Donastorg, a popular, former senator from the district of St. Thomas/St. John finished with a total of 989 votes behind Christensen. This was his third try for the democratic gubernatorial nomination. Let’s put this into perspective. This is a 6 candidate race. In the Delegate to Congress race, Attorney Stacey Plaskett defeated current Senate President Shawn-Michael Malone by a total of 792 votes in a three candidate race, and the current narrative on the subject is that she won a resounding victory. However 792 votes are 197 votes less than the 989 votes. Now let’s examine the basis of the narrative, that the Delegate is weak and vulnerable after this last primary. The basis of the narrative is that she only received 35 percent of the total votes cast in the democratic primary. Therefore, we know that 65 percent of the votes cast were not for the delegate. The basis of this narrative is built on the fact that every vote cast for one of the other 5 candidates was a vote against the delegate. If that was and is true, then the basis of the narrative would be true, meaning the narrative itself quite possibly is true. This would mean that voters were not voting for one of the five respective candidates, but as a statement against the Delegate. The only problem with this premise is, then why would not all 65 percent make a statement together and band together for one candidate in the primary to eliminate the Delegate?

Gubernatorial candidate Kenneth Mapp with former Miss USVI

The answer lies in her opponents. The Delegate ran against the current Lieutenant Governor Gregory Francis, a former business executive and financial accountant Marvin Pickering, and a former Lt. Governor, business owner and perennial candidate Gerard Luz James, II all from her own home district. All candidates offered distinct differences in their platforms and agendas and engaged different parts of the Virgin Islands community, specifically the St. Croix community. As a result we had a higher proportional turnout in the St. Croix district, than in the St. Thomas-St.John district. Furthermore, the votes were spread around in the St. Croix district. A district the delegate still won by 398 votes. Where the narrative falls apart even more is when we examine the St. Thomas-St. John District, where there were only two candidates from that home district. The delegate received her higher vote count of the two districts in that district and won by a total of 592 votes over her closest competitor. Historically, the delegate has received her higher total vote count in the St. Thomas-St. John district, despite St. Croix being her home base. In the 2012 primary race, she received 2,387 votes in a two-person race in the St. Thomas district, while only receiving 1,570 votes in the St. Croix district. Even with the smaller turnout on St. Thomas she still had a higher total vote count from the district.

Christensen & running mate Basil

Predator or Prey

Currently in this race there are three other candidates vying for the office of the Governor of the U.S. Virgin Islands. They are former Lt. Governor Kenneth Mapp, Sergeant Major Mona Barnes, Judge Soraya Coffelt, and Sheila Alvin Scullion. Of the four other candidates only one of them has ran for elected office previous to this attempt. So three of those candidates will have to deal with the big problem of name recognition and base identifying. None of which the Delegate or Mapp has to deal with. Because Mapp has run before and is a known commodity, we can start to look at his past numbers. In the 2010 general gubernatorial election he received a total of 13,580 votes; 7,312 of those votes were received on St. Croix, while 6,268 of those votes were received in St. Thomas. He lost both districts to incumbent Governor John P. deJongh Jr. At that time he lost the St. Thomas district by a total of 2,761 votes. He lost the district by about 20% in a head to head battle. He also did not win the St. Croix district, but the race was a lot closer in his home district. His clear weakness in getting elected lies in the St. Thomas-St. John district. Unless we have a repeat in the proportionally larger turnout in the St. Croix district, the path to victory for Kenneth Mapp will run through St. Thomas. He will have to close the margins in St. Thomas-St. John, while increasing his margins in St. Croix. If Mapp is not able to complete that task, the would be predator, really is just prey.

The alligator snapper employs a unique natural lure in its hunting technique. Its tongue sports a bright-red, worm-shaped piece of flesh that, when displayed by a motionless turtle on a river bottom, draws curious fish or frogs close enough to be snatched.

The real answer to the question of whether the Delegate is weakened enough to be defeated will be answered on November 4^th, 2014. Even though it is still early, and much can change, I suspect she may just be laying in the water with her mouth open, waiting to close her powerful jaws on the would be predators.